送交者: 008 于 July 12, 2001 23:44:42:

回答: answer to the 抛硬币 "paradox" 由 steven 于 July 12, 2001 01:40:46:

算呀算的, 你先用用你的公式算算, 前9 次都向上的概率是多少?
A 是典型的照搬公式, B 是胡说八道. 下面是答案C:
由于9个硬币都朝上, 因此一个正常人(*)必然认为第十枚朝上的概率大.

(*):除学过一点点概率论的人以外的人

• 如果连续9次朝上，那说明独立同分布成立的概率很小 - 岳麓山 (101 bytes) 11:53:50 7/13/01 (9)
  • who did you mean? - steven (236 bytes) 22:29:22 7/13/01 (8)
    • 对不起, 不会英文 - 008temp (647 bytes) 21:52:24 7/14/01 (7)
      • statistical result. - steven (864 bytes) 02:21:01 7/16/01 (6)
        • looks like web server filtered out some text. - steven (775 bytes) 11:03:42 7/16/01 (5)
          • If you don't agree "small probability == will not happen" - 008 (557 bytes) 10:35:59 7/17/01 (4)
            • what if there were 2037 tossing before you see that 9 tossing? - steven (672 bytes) 21:49:14 7/17/01 (3)
              • yes, like you said, - 008 (474 bytes) 11:34:36 7/18/01 (2)
                • the outcome of a small experimental set does not affact the probability. - steven (1679 bytes) 14:19:39 7/18/01 (1)
                  • no - 008 (125 bytes) 21:18:59 7/18/01 (0)

加跟贴