送交者: 008 于 July 18, 2001 11:34:36:
回答: what if there were 2037 tossing before you see that 9 tossing? 由 steven 于 July 17, 2001 21:49:14:
It could happen, only 1/512, not that small.
so I have 1-1/512 chance to be right. You insist it should be 1/2, ok, you could be right, but the chance is 1/512, not that small.
The theory of probability is used for us to take good chance, but if you use it wrong, you can mess yourself up.
Well, if there are 2037 tosses before that, that's another problem. We are talking about the 9 tosses, I think. You'd better understand this problem first before you switch away.