what if there were 2037 tossing before you see that 9 tossing?



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送交者: steven 于 July 17, 2001 21:49:14:

回答: If you don't agree "small probability == will not happen" 由 008 于 July 17, 2001 10:35:59:

If these 2037 tossing were closed to the theoretical result, and then the next 9 tossing all ended up head, what do you think about the next one? If you group tossing
at a time, you would likely found head and tail distributed according to binomial distribution, and 10 consecutive tossing all shown head is not that adnormal? It could heppen, only 1/1024, not that small.

The bottom line is 9 tossing is a too small sampling space to make conclusion, you don't even know what the result may have been before your orbservation. In
practical test, event the weight of a coin is not evenly
distributed between head and tail, the outcome is still pretty much 1/2.



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