文献三,第四段,这位YN作者承认犯了统计学的错误。


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送交者: Amsel 于 2008-07-14, 19:45:17:

回答: 记下几篇引潮力和地震关系的文献(跟固体力学和统计有关,但是很简单) 由 Amsel 于 2008-07-14, 19:36:53:

当然这一耳光也扇在中国地震局的脸上。

Perhaps most importantly, the statistics employed by
Crockett et al. [2006] are somewhat problematic. Schuster’s
test is only valid for independent datasets in which events
occur at random. This test can produce a false positive result
if the data set is not random and so should not be used for
statistical tests on catalogs that include aftershocks. Therefore,
the statistics given by Crockett et al. [2006] for the raw
(clustered) catalog are invalid. Specifically, in the clustered
catalog, the times of aftershocks of the M9.3 megathrust
dominate the sample, and they are not uncorrelated in time.
Rather they tend to occur just after the mainshock, as
aftershocks are prone to do.




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