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送交者: boxer 于 2005-4-06, 11:58:19:

脱离组织的危险-昆虫为什么集体迁移?

I felt a little uneasy with the method used in this paper.

Does this paper suggest that the "natural death rate" of the crickets in two days could reach 60%? If this is true, if I further assume that the death rate has a 对数 relationship with the time. I guess the death rate of crickets are extremely high in the natural enviorment.

Could there be other explainations?
1). The "sampling" process in this experiment is not the same for the two conditions. 对大部队行动的采样样本太小. 换言之, 自然环境下, 每只 cricket 代表了比较大的空间. 而聚集情况下, 每只 cricket 代表了较小的空间. 和理的采样应该是对同等的空间采样.

2). 无线电发射器 did affect the movement of the crickets. 在采样样本小的情况, the effect of 无线电发射器 has a very small effect on the crickets in 大部队.



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