No sulution

No sulution

所有跟贴·加跟贴·新语丝读书论坛

送交者: HunHunSheng 于 2008-09-26, 12:09:09:

回答: 转一道很简单的概率题由 Amsel 于 2008-09-26, 12:05:04:

The info that 甲的可靠性为90％（90％的情况下，甲的说法是事实) is not enough. What shoudl be provioded is

P(甲回来汇报说情况是真的|情况是真的) and
P(甲回来汇报说情况是真的|情况是假的) and

原题无非说得笼统而已，知道你要这样抠。 - Amsel (92 bytes) 2008-09-26, 12:11:19 (262170)
- Then it is a simple matter of bayyesian estimator (无内容) - HunHunSheng (0 bytes) 2008-09-26, 12:12:48 (262172)
  - and need to assume 甲 and 乙 are independent of each other (无内容) - HunHunSheng (0 bytes) 2008-09-26, 12:13:56 (262174)