送交者: wasguru 于 2005-5-12, 18:54:50:

回答: the law of small numbers 由 xj 于 2005-5-12, 18:21:33:

Binomial distribution only cares about the total number of heads and tails, but not the detailed sequence. That's where the extra (n choose m) factor comes in.

Besides, the whole argument is based on a basic assumption: the coin is fair. If that assumption is subject to test, Bayesian school comes in. In fact, if I see six heads in a row, I'll bet the next one be a head again, not the opposite.

所有跟贴:

- yeah, viewing N as an sample size is a little bit over stretch -
**xj**(309 bytes)*2005-5-12, 19:02:27*- viewing a continuous coin toss as binomial loses a lot of information -
**wasguru**(160 bytes)*2005-5-12, 19:16:25*

- viewing a continuous coin toss as binomial loses a lot of information -