看来“共识”在气候模拟上有特殊含义


所有跟贴·加跟贴·新语丝读书论坛

送交者: gyro 于 2010-12-31, 18:00:51:

回答: 谢谢!从同行讨论的措辞最容易想见实际情形 由 gyro 于 2010-12-31, 17:29:05:

GAVIN SCHMIDT 花了很多篇幅谈model mean,让人怀疑“共识”是否就是model mean。

引用:
In the same way that you can't make an average arithmetic be more accurate than the correct arithmetic, it is not obvious that the average climate model should be better than all of the other climate models. For example, if I wanted to know what 2+2 was and I picked a set of random numbers, averaging all those random numbers is unlikely to give me four.

引用:
Yet in the case of climate models, this is kind of what you get. You take all the climate models, which give you numbers between three and five, and you get a result that is very close to four. Obviously, it's not pure mathematics. It's physics, it's approximations, it involves empirical estimates.. But it's very odd that the average of all the models is better than any one individual model.





所有跟贴:


加跟贴

笔名: 密码: 注册笔名请按这里

标题:

内容: (BBCode使用说明