加拿大地质调查局的王克林和中国地震局的陈棋福刚发表一篇论文,


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送交者: Amsel 于 2010-11-01, 19:25:16:

发表在美国地震学报上:http://bssa.geoscienceworld.org/cgi/content/abstract/100/5B/2840

文章重点总结的是汶川地震前后的中国地震预报体系,然后分析了汶川地震同样不能预报,最后列出了汶川地震反映出的抗震工作的缺陷。

文章开端就提到中国和发达国家相反,至今不肯承认地震不能预报的现状:

引用:
Few seismologists believe that it is presently possible or
forever impossible to predict an earthquake with the time,
location, and size specified accurately enough to guide plans
for evacuation. Regardless of its scientific merit and future
development, governments of most industrial countries
consider earthquake prediction to be presently impractical.
Instead, it is commonly accepted that the most effective
way of minimizing the impact of earthquakes to human life
and economy is to strengthen our built environment based on
scientific assessment of earthquake hazard and risk, a practice
we call seismic risk mitigation in this article. However,
this was not common understanding in China when the
Mw 7.9 (Ms 8.0) Wenchuan earthquake struck Sichuan Province
on 12 May 2008, claiming over 80,000 lives. In China,
earthquake prediction is not merely a topic of research, but a
government-sanctioned, law-regulated, and routinely practiced
measure of disaster prevention.

引用:
In a questionnaire sent to
all provincial seismological bureaus after the Wenchuan
earthquake, the CEA asked to what degree the government
and society needed earthquake prediction. The overwhelming
response was that the demand was extremely strong and
the expectation very high【真愚昧】. The new version of the Law on
Protecting Against and Mitigating Earthquake Disasters
(the “Earthquake Act”), promulgated in the wake of the
Wenchuan disaster, still stipulates a procedure of forming,
evaluating, and announcing earthquake predictions.

王克林曾在2006年和孙士宏一起调查海城预报经过,文章也发表在美国地震学报上(2008年《财经》的报导更准确详细)。




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