I think 李院士's point on the difference between ”预报成功率”and ”探测成功率” is right. Now I see that gh's question is related to 李院士's example, which is again about ”预报成功率”rather than ”探测成功率”.

I agree with you that the ”预报成功率”is not always a useful measurement and understand why people in the field don't care much about it.