article "赌场看门道" says that "多赌则必输" This is wrong


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送交者: 2cents 于 2009-07-04, 10:34:47:

The reasoning leads to the conclusion that "多赌则必输无疑" is loose. In fact, if you have unlimited money, with probability one you will win. The simple strategy is to double your wager every time you lose, and do that until you win.

Suppose you first wage $1, if you win then you stop (and you have won). If you lose, then you wage $2. If you win, then again you have won and you stop. If you lose again, then you double you wager again to wage $4, and so on.

As long as there is a fixed positive probability that you can win in each round, then eventually you will win.

I think 科普 article should be accurate.

Also, I think most people already know what is said in the article 赌场看门道. It is not insightful at all. A weak article.




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