I believe people (including me) view market timing as trying to buy at the exact low and sell at the exact high.This can never been done. The real meaning of market timing is to follow the market. 追涨杀跌!I have never appreciated the essence of this until the recent bear has done significant carnage on my investment. A simple moving average crossing will do to eliminate the big bears. The table below shows the return between timing and LTBH from 1981.
NYSE S&P 500 Nasdaq Naz 100 Wil5K
System 9.06% 10.18% 13.66% 13.12% 4.26%
GSD 14.12 12.40 15.15 23.45 6.21
LTBH 8.07% 7.96% 8.46% 6.94% -1.04%
GSD 16.29 14.98 19.94 28.53 8.77