A good TA would avoid all earnings warnings


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送交者: james_hussein_bond 于 2008-04-15, 14:01:52:

回答: TA is all about statistics, after all. So false signals are 由 chouqilozi 于 2008-04-15, 13:45:14:

if you're willing to give up some of the good rebounds. Rebounds are very very high risk trades. That's why I said CROX was not worth the risk when wanglee first recommended it. A large percentage of stocks showing that kind of chart would have an earnings warning or two in the future.

I was hit by a similar situation many years ago when I was in the early stage of learning this game. I had made some money in a stock on its runup to the top (and I timed the exit at the top pretty well). After it crashed more than half in price, on rebound, I bought some at $25 - same thinking: good company, growing business, good profit margin, stock was cheap (and it was free money from the profit of the previous trade). A few days later the company issued an earnings warning and the stock opened at $18. I was able to catch a little rebound and got out at $21 but it was the biggest percentage loss I had suffered to that point. I had bigger losses later for other reasons but never made the same mistake again. That particular stock eventually bottomed at a little over $1 (yes, you read it right, one dollar) before it started to go up again.




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