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送交者: james_bond_3rd 于 2008-01-23, 11:25:25:

回答: 不是我不相信老中一号的数字 由 tom_cat 于 2008-01-23, 02:16:11:

Ironic you ask others to study history yet you only know a tiny part of it, the part when there was only economic expansion. This expansion started in the early 1980's is coming to an end. You cannot compare today with the mini crises during the expansion phase. A better comparison would be 1929. Amazingly, Bush Jr. is remarkably similar in style to Hoover. But history doesn't repeat itself in exactly the same way. The Fed did learn their lesson so this time they are pumping massive liquidity into the market, unlike 1929. What it does is to create another bubble in another sector of the economy. First it was dot com. Second was housing. I don't know what will come next. Possibly oil. Then it could be gold. But with each bubble burst, more people will suffer. After they run out of bubbles to prop up, it will be a general depression.

Perhaps a generation later some genius economist will figure out how to get out of these cycles without too much damage. Perhaps there never will be a solution.




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