按总人口基数算，高估了两个数量级；按实际发生的雷电数算，高估了一个数量级。

National weather service：

At any given moment, there are 1,800 thunderstorms in progress somewhere on the earth. This amounts to 16 million storms each year...There are lightning detection systems in the United States and they monitor an average of 25 million flashes of lightning from the cloud to ground every year!

During the past 30 years, lightning killed an average of 62 people per year. This ties the average of 62 deaths per year caused by tornadoes. Yet because lightning usually claims only one or two victims at a time and does not cause mass destruction of property, it is underrated as a risk. While documented lightning injuries in the United States average about 300 per year, undocumented injuries likely much higher.