这种比喻本身假设余震发生的概率是50%
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送交者: HunHunSheng 于 2008-05-21, 12:27:46:
回答: 专家称余震的预报能够成功的概率不会超过40%，不会高于 由 Amsel 于 2008-05-21, 12:19:10:
If the event is a small-chance event in the first place, then 成功的概率 - probablity(aftershock happens|prediction of a after shock) would be considered very high.
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