送交者: xj 于 2005-8-26, 12:23:09:
he is talking about the possibilities of recession in the next year, 2006-2007. Fairly technical.
The main point is that statistical models are pointless in predicting the future (even the next year). When it comes to reality, all economic models have failed us. All models are wrong but some are useful. Macroecon models are useless.
One salient point, I think and also commented by one reader, is that the cause and effects are inevitably intertwined. Fed makes policies to modify the downward or upward econ trend based on previous econ condition. It is a dynamic process with too much outside interference. Simply modeling one series of data is naive because it ignores all external factors. However, one may argue that the data themselves tell the whole story, in that they lump everything into one series of data points.
I have to admit these econ guys are crazy writings such long posts. But I am sure their posts will have profound impact on the national policy, for a lot of policy makers are reading them and national newspapers will report them if they are interesting.