The point is so many unknowns


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送交者: kma 于 2021-04-29, 09:33:52:

回答: Is a new variant driving India’s coronavirus catastrophe? 由 jhuang 于 2021-04-28, 03:33:25:

About covid19. It is still true everyday we learn sth new about it.

Yet it is not just a scientific issue, we can argue both ways and little at e is huge number of lives at stake.

Almost all people are caught off guard by this sudden hike in India, but it is just not a shrug of saying I was wrong enough, people die, a lot!

It is ok for people of you and me saying whatever , we are nobodies. But for people like fang, a widely respected pop science writer with huge influence despite block in China, it is not very prudent. And for more important people like fauci or tegnell, their responsibilities are huge, they can not simply treat it as a science issue, they have to take safe than sorry attitude. Fauci ,s evolution of attitude is such compromise, basically following consensus in science. Tegnell on the other hand took a high risk high reward one, if his view eventually proved right, he should be widely praised and awarded, but if the other way, he should be forever banned from public service and shamed in STEM field. So far, little is in his favor.

Fang,s attitude during this pandemic is frankly speaking, puzzling. He wrote little of long constructive ones about covid19, basically keep the same attitude as for sars. Even himself he has to admit his view is in minority in science field, just as tegnell and barrington group. Of course it is possible they eventually be proven right, but again so far little are in their favor.

Is fang really believing China should basically follow the sars time strategy ? Not vaccinating better than take Chinese ones? And China in his way can avoid what happened in Brazil and India, or even if so, not that a big deal? It is almost one year since he wrote some long constructive view on covid, maybe time again he writes another one. Just short tweets no good. Answer those crucial questions in common people minds, what should we do? What is the correct strategy, how much death he predicts following his way. He has to state those things clear in mind. As this moment we can only guess:

Old people die not crucially enough to change strategy, they die anyway, sooner or later. And people die not as important as economy and freedom. A huge point in favor of his view would inintended collateral damage by the Chinese way of shutdown, but where is the hard evidence of that? How many Chinese death caused by shutdown?




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