终于找到具体MODEL了,见内。


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送交者: 湘女 于 2016-10-24, 16:43:46:

回答: 应该有6到7个因素,不然变量不够凑不出正确结果来。 由 小道消息 于 2016-10-24, 15:49:37:

V = A + b1 Vt-1 + b2 Vt-2 + b3 DPRIM + b4 RPRIM


Vt-1:Incumbent party’s popular two-party vote in the last election
Vt-2:Incumbent party’s popular two-party vote in the second to last election
DPRIM:Incumbent-party (Democratic) candidate primary support in New Hampshire and South Carolina
RPRIM:Opposition-party (Republican) candidate primary support in New Hampshire and South Carolina
V:Incumbent share of the two-party vote
A:Constant

http://pollyvote.com/en/components/econometric-models/primary-model/




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