送交者: 008 于 2005-5-12, 21:02:46:

回答: the law of small numbers 由 xj 于 2005-5-12, 18:21:33:

Your view on statistics is not correct. There is no "fair" game. If you observed something with small probability, it won't be corrected later -- as you pointed out, and it won't be diluted also; you go back and modify your assumption, that's what should happen.

Bayesian's view always make sense, p=0.5 or not.

• the point is common people won't correct their own assumption - xj (65 bytes) 2005-5-12, 22:07:50

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