Ever since Gallup polls "likely voters", it correctly predicts electoral winner

Ever since Gallup polls "likely voters", it correctly predicts electoral winner

所有跟贴·加跟贴·新语丝读书论坛

送交者: JZ 于 2012-11-06, 13:09:42:

1992 Gallup: Clinton 49, Bush 37, Perot 14
1992 electoral college: Clinton 370, Bush 168

1996 Gallup: Clinton 48, Dole 40, Perot 6
1996 electoral college: Clinton 379, Dole 159

2000 Gallup: Bush 47, Gore 45, Nader 4
2000 electoral college: Bush 271, Gore 266

2004 Gallup: Bush 49, Kerry 47
2004 electoral college: Bush 286, Kerry 251

2008 Gallup: Obama 53, McCain 42
2008 electoral college: Obama 365, McCain 173

2012 Gallup: Romney 49, Obama 48
2012 electoral college: ???

Gallup was wrong in 2000. For 2012, I've got one word for you - ASH (109 bytes) 2012-11-06, 16:32:06 (690082)
- what's wrong in 2000? higher likely voters -> higher electoral votes! (无内容) - JZ (0 bytes) 2012-11-06, 16:50:33 (690086)
  - Gallup had Bush winning by 2% but Gore actually won by 0.5% - ASH (134 bytes) 2012-11-06, 16:56:20 (690089)
    - can you read? higher likely voter -> higher electoral votes (无内容) - JZ (0 bytes) 2012-11-06, 16:59:42 (690092)
      - 废话 (无内容) - ASH (0 bytes) 2012-11-06, 20:16:16 (690142)
This time is so close.Crossing my fingers.Voted although my state is so blue. (无内容) - CVI (0 bytes) 2012-11-06, 13:16:04 (690033)
- 住在blue state这样现代的地方还跟愚昧落后地方人投同样的票，你脑子搭错了？ (无内容) - ASH (0 bytes) 2012-11-06, 14:28:29 (690059)
  - 那能和你精英比。我就是懂点经济而已。 (无内容) - CVI (0 bytes) 2012-11-06, 15:55:19 (690068)
    - BSO, How I wish I know finance.:) (无内容) - shine (0 bytes) 2012-11-06, 17:06:29 (690097)
      - BSO 是什么？Finance是金融，不过俺也懂一点。 (无内容) - CVI (0 bytes) 2012-11-06, 19:50:37 (690129)
        
        BSO means bloody show off. :) - shine (38 bytes) 2012-11-06, 20:31:37 (690149)