A bit comments on the discussion of "奥卡姆剃刀"



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送交者: mangolasi 于 2006-1-24, 16:14:17:

(did not read the original post yet). The question is two-folded (in an economist's eye):

1) the knowledge of probability: current economists are believing something called "common probability" in non-game theory/signalling theory setting, i.e. everyone knows a "true" probability distribtuion. Game/signal/aution guys are believing something called "private information", i.e. different people are holding different probability not because they are "believe" that probability, but because they have different information--and they adjust it by observing other people's behavior (revealing information). If the information is the same, the probability is the same. Just a small noche of guys are doing "subjective probability" which people really "believe" their own information of probability.

2) you don't really have to "believe" in different probability to have different behavior. Even with the same proability, different people can still have differnt choice--by the difference of their preference. The same lost of $100 with probability .1, will have different impact on different people (even with the same level of wealth!). Some people are willing to give out $20 for sure to avoid this risk, some $10 (actuarial fair value, or expected value). It is for this diversity that we can trade--through something we call "utility": a mapping from real things (money, health condition, cake) to "happiness".



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