I don't see hwo it's gonna collapse


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送交者: slashdot 于 2006-12-03, 12:40:33:

回答: 通篇看下来,没有一点立足于经济的分析 由 元江 于 2006-12-03, 09:03:16:

Interest rate is at historically low, liquidity is not a problem, yet. The booming real estate market is a global phenomenon, and it's caused by global liquidity seeking yield and capital appreciation. Now that doesn't mean there is no trouble going forward. Fed fund rate increases starts to show its effect on home buyers and new home start figures are miserable. But if U.K. is any indication, the future may not be that bleak. Greenspan recently said the worst may be over for housing market, and the stock market agrees - home builders started to recover from one year slump.

At this moment the most interesting to watch is China's bond market. For the first time in a long time, the yield curve is inverted in China, which often lead to recession. IF PBOC continues to raise short term rate, it will bring down the housing price for sure. But given China's stimulus policy i don't see them serious about rate increase. My predication is China's housing price will stagnate for a long while, but don't expect a collapse (like a -30% down)





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