送交者: xj 于 2006-2-15, 14:29:25:
回答: Predict yoru own death 由 HunHunSheng 于 2006-2-15, 13:21:25:
the 81% is the study response rate, not the correctly predicted rate.
In fact, the predictive equation has a c statistic (the Frank Harrell's concordance statistic) of 0.82, that is, 82% correct. However, this is only at the good level. 90% above is excellent.
On the other hand, about 18% of people will get the wrong answer. This is a fairly large porpotion. almost one over 5 people will get wrong, who dare to tell his patients about this?
Besides, given the comorbidity at hand, a sane doctor can guess fairly well the patient's probability of dying within next four years.
This study may be useful in research, however.