真正符合“富”(起码top 1%的人)的数据找不到,而且由于sample小不大可靠。但起码找到以下一段。由于有37%的最富20%的人能留在这个范围,那么连续到第四代富(“过三代”)的可能性是.37*.37*.37=.05063,不算大的数字。但hunhun说富人的孩子成为富人机会大很多的话,也有道理,因为要是你是20%最富家庭出生,那么你stay的可能性是37%,因此其他80%出生的人挤入这20%最富的可能性是(1-.37)*,2=.126,那么如果各个阶层机会均等的话,那么机会是.126/.8=.1575,那么top 25%的孩子的机会比其他人多2.35倍。不过这里说bottom20%的人只有6%的机会,那么如果中间的那两个阶层平均起来是15.75%机会,那么20-40%这个阶层的机会是.1575*2-.06=.255,仍然比最富20%的孩子少11.5%的机会。
不过top 20%算不上什么富,相信你们都是,不过再富一些的没有数据。所以你们不用担心,你们的孩子都很可能将会有你的生活标准的。
http://www.economist.com/world/na/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=3518560"He found that 42% of those born into the poorest fifth ended up where they started—at the bottom. Another 24% moved up slightly to the next-to-bottom group. Only 6% made it to the top fifth. Upward mobility was particularly low for black families. On the other hand, 37% of those born into the top fifth remained there, whereas barely 7% of those born into the top 20% ended up in the bottom fifth. A person born into the top fifth is over five times as likely to end up at the top as a person born into the bottom fifth."